Free Tool · No Signup
Expected Value Calculator
Calculate the EV of any bet. Use your own probability estimate, or compare against a sharp book line to find +EV opportunities automatically.
Your Bet
Decimal: 2.100 · Breakeven: 47.6%
Your honest estimate of how often this bet wins.
Expected Value
Long-term, every $100 you bet on this exact wager makes you $15.50 on average.
What this means
Your estimate of 55.0% beats the breakeven rate of 47.6% by 7.38 points — that's your edge.
Implied Probability Reference
| American | Decimal | Breakeven Win Rate |
|---|---|---|
| -300 | 1.333 | 75.0% |
| -200 | 1.500 | 66.7% |
| -150 | 1.667 | 60.0% |
| -110 | 1.909 | 52.4% |
| +100 | 2.000 | 50.0% |
| +120 | 2.200 | 45.5% |
| +150 | 2.500 | 40.0% |
| +200 | 3.000 | 33.3% |
| +300 | 4.000 | 25.0% |
Find +EV bets automatically
Stop calculating one bet at a time.
This calculator works one bet at a time. TrueLine compares lines across 10 Canadian sportsbooks against Pinnacle's de-vigged fair line every 10 minutes — surfacing +EV opportunities the moment they appear, before retail books update.
How the math works
The expected value formula:
EV = (winProb × profit) - (lossProb × stake)
In By Win Probability mode, you provide your honest estimate of the true win probability. The calculator compares it to the implied probability of the odds you're getting.
In vs. Sharp Book mode, the calculator estimates the true probability by de-vigging the sharp book's two-sided market. This removes the sportsbook's built-in margin to estimate the true fair value:
fair_p = implied_p / (implied_p + opposing_implied_p)
The de-vigged probability assumes both sides of the market share the vig proportionally. It's an approximation, but a useful one — when a sharp book offers different prices than a recreational book, the difference between de-vigged sharp and recreational lines is a reasonable estimate of EV.
All math runs in your browser. We don't log or store your inputs.